Guide
NCAA Betting
NCAAB betting during March Madness is an exciting and unpredictable venture. With 76 teams competing in a single-elimination bracket, the likelihood of upsets is high.
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Seeds that win in round one
For instance, 9 seeds are most likely to pull off a first-round upset with a winning percentage of 51.9%, while 11 seeds have shown strong performance, going 12-8 over the past five years. Meanwhile, 12 seeds have continued their dominance, winning at least one first-round game in 34 of the last 40 tournaments, and the 12 seeds also won three games in 2013 and 2014.
Upsets on record
Historically, there have been a total of 58 upsets by No. 12 seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985, and the lower seed has won 35.37% of the time in March Madness. Notable upsets in recent years include UMBC stunning No. 1 Virginia in 2018, and all-time, 13 seeds boast a 33-127 record since 1985.
How the middle of the bracket is drawn
The Selection Committee treats the eight teams in the middle of the rankings as equal, with no difference between 8 and 9 seeds. With an average of 7-9 first-round upsets each year, March Madness presents ample opportunities for underdogs to shine.
First-round upsets by seed pairing
| Pairing | Underdog record | Underdog wins | Break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 v 16 | 2-158 | 1.25% | 80.00 |
| 2 v 15 | 11-149 | 6.9% | 14.55 |
| 3 v 14 | 23-137 | 14.4% | 6.96 |
| 4 v 13 | 33-127 | 20.6% | 4.85 |
| 5 v 12 | 58-106 | 35.37% | 2.83 |
| 6 v 11 | 68-112 | 37.8% | 2.65 |
| 7 v 10 | 72-111 | 39.3% | 2.54 |
| 8 v 9 | 83-77 | 51.9% | 1.93 |
Example. Records since 1985, 5 v 12 through 2026, the rest through 2025. Break-even is 1 divided by the rate, no margin assumed.